SoccerForecast currently implements only one distribution to process forecasts based on historical data.
This distribution is called Poisson.
To process the data you need to load the desired country through the "Nations" control, and the related championship to be analyzed through the "Competitions" control.
You can read up on how to do this in the "Sub-Menu" section as they are components that belong to the "Sub-Menu".
Accuracy of data
As we already mentioned in the "Welcome" section, this program does not foresee the future, and does not implement any secret "sauce" to make you win.
SoccerForecast is "simply" a powerful tools for analysis, processing, and data evaluation.
The accuracy of the data depends a lot on the player's skill and experience. Let's immediately take a very simple example that deviates from the betting world.
Suppose you want to buy a pair of scissors to cut your hair, you buy the best model available but you've never cut hair in your life.
So hope that the scissors purchased allow you to immediately become a professional barber.
It so happens that, given your lack of experience, you start to do a lot of damage, so much so that you are criticizing the instrument you are using.
This mechanism is generally repeated on most of the products that are sold.
SoccerForecast is a very powerful tool, and only those who can read the data and have a good base of experience in the world of betting will be able to use it to the fullest.
An occasional bettor the first thing he will do is open the program, load the nations, the competitions for which he is interested, and make a nice multiple with the highest percentages provided by the software.
There is nothing more wrong in doing this.
If you're this type of playing, you have two choices:
- Follow the advice available in this documentation.
- Forget about this program and continue on your way.
Once again we repeat: there is no mathematical application that can predict the exact result of a match. At least until they invent a machine to travel in the future.
When SoccerForecast makes a prediction, the program respects a set of mathematical rules (based on the selected distribution), which allow the calculation of a percentage, called a prediction.
The main problem is that this mathematical distribution can not be based on random variables or otherwise called stochastic.
The random variables can assume different values depending on some random (casual) phenomenon.
Although based on historical data, the program can not know if:
- The coach has made a massive turnover.
- The field conditions are not optimal.
- Wrong arbitrage.
- Accidents during the match.
- Expulsions during the game.
- Other types of events not previously calculable.
Based on this, even a value that has a 100% probability of success could actually jump. There is no mathematical certainty that can make you win anyway. The aim of the forecasts is to provide a general idea of the favorite.
It is possible to calculate the forecasts generated by Poisson dynamically, to do so, it is necessary to enable the dynamic processing mode in the settings: "Settings -> Processing -> Dynamic elaboration".
This mode is very useful for studying the progression of signs.
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